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"label": "no recession signal",
"label_zh": "\u65e0\u8870\u9000\u4fe1\u53f7",
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"note": "IN-SAMPLE (fit and scored on the same 1985+ window) \u2014 reference only, NOT the headline. See out-of-sample stats above."
},
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"caveat": "Out-of-sample (leave-one-recession-out) on N\u22483 endogenous recessions \u2014 even the OOS estimate is underpowered; the Jeffreys interval on the catch rate is wide. Vintage (initial-release) data for legs with ALFRED coverage (ICSA/UMCSENT/PAYEMS/INDPRO); the rest use revised data so their leads are an upper bound. COVID-2020 is exogenous and excluded from lead stats."
},
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"note": "Publication lag is a per-leg schedule (PUB_LAG_M) applied symmetrically on the live and validation paths (macro-regime-6). Daily leading legs (SPY/curve/HY/claims) are knowable intramonth \u2192 lag 0; monthly hard data carry their real release lag (1-2 months). `extra_uniform_lag_m` is any additional uniform stress lag on top (default 0)."
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"caveat": "Effective sample is tiny (~7 modern US recessions, ~3 point-in-time) \u2014 a recession-RISK timeline, not a crash oracle. Lead times are measured against NBER dates; see the validation report.",
"caveat_zh": "\u6709\u6548\u6837\u672c\u6781\u5c0f\uff08\u73b0\u4ee3\u7f8e\u56fd\u8870\u9000\u7ea6 7 \u6b21\uff0c\u53ef\u70b9\u5bf9\u70b9\u56de\u6eaf\u7ea6 3 \u6b21\uff09\u2014\u2014\u8fd9\u662f\u8870\u9000\u201c\u98ce\u9669\u201d\u65f6\u95f4\u7ebf\uff0c\u5e76\u975e\u5d29\u76d8\u9884\u8a00\u3002\u9886\u5148\u65f6\u957f\u4ee5 NBER \u65e5\u671f\u4e3a\u51c6\uff0c\u8be6\u89c1\u9a8c\u8bc1\u62a5\u544a\u3002"
},
"conditions": {
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"state": "loose",
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"lead_lag": "coincident",
"evidence": "OFR Financial Stress Index: a daily 33-variable global stress gauge with functional (credit / equity valuation / safe assets / funding / volatility) and regional (US / other-advanced / EM) decomposition. A coincident gauge \u2014 it names the stress CHANNEL when markets move as one; display + an optional risk-OFF gate, never cross-sectional alpha."
},
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"components": {
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"band": "low",
"dd10_prob_pct": 10,
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"lead_lag": "lagging",
"basis": "macro/credit composite (recession_risk, NFCI, EBP, HY OAS)",
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"stat_passport": {
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"frame": "pit",
"labor_leg": "claims",
"n_base": 8718,
"n_extreme": 953,
"span": "1993-01-29\u20132026-06-30",
"definition": "max peak-to-trough SPY decline over the next 63 trading days",
"note": "Re-measured on the leak-free PIT ('release') frame with the jobless-claims labor leg; replaces the stale 8/26/36/38 (Sahm-era, revised-frame) table. Live gauge fires on 'latest'; its bands are within CI of PIT. Overlap-inflated N + episode-driven high/extreme bands \u2014 a risk read, not a crash oracle."
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"label": "Macro/credit drawdown pressure (lagging)",
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"driver": "10y yield direction",
"measured": "rising 10y -> value (+0.84%/63d, t=+3.0, all 4 sub-periods); Q1->value, Q4->growth"
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"dir": "good",
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"gdpnow": {
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"dir": "flat",
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"name_en": "VIX",
"name_zh": "\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387 VIX",
"value": 0.419,
"pct": 56,
"lean": "risk-on"
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{
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"name_en": "HY credit spread",
"name_zh": "\u9ad8\u6536\u76ca\u4fe1\u7528\u5229\u5dee",
"value": 1.047,
"pct": 70,
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"value": -0.456,
"pct": 33,
"lean": "risk-off"
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"key": "vix_term",
"name_en": "VIX term structure",
"name_zh": "VIX \u671f\u9650\u7ed3\u6784",
"value": 0.315,
"pct": 57,
"lean": "risk-on"
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{
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"name_en": "Financial conditions (NFCI)",
"name_zh": "\u91d1\u878d\u6761\u4ef6 NFCI",
"value": 1.026,
"pct": 66,
"lean": "risk-on"
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{
"key": "copper_gold",
"name_en": "Copper/Gold",
"name_zh": "\u94dc\uff0f\u91d1 \u6bd4",
"value": 2.538,
"pct": 100,
"lean": "risk-on"
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{
"key": "dxy",
"name_en": "Dollar (20d %\u0394)",
"name_zh": "\u7f8e\u5143\uff0820\u65e5 %\u53d8\u52a8\uff09",
"value": 0.29,
"pct": 62,
"lean": "risk-on"
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"confirmation": {
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"total": 7,
"agree": 6,
"direction": "risk-on",
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"en": "VIX",
"zh": "\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387 VIX"
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{
"key": "hy_oas",
"en": "HY credit spread",
"zh": "\u9ad8\u6536\u76ca\u4fe1\u7528\u5229\u5dee"
},
{
"key": "vix_term",
"en": "VIX term structure",
"zh": "VIX \u671f\u9650\u7ed3\u6784"
},
{
"key": "nfci",
"en": "Financial conditions (NFCI)",
"zh": "\u91d1\u878d\u6761\u4ef6 NFCI"
},
{
"key": "copper_gold",
"en": "Copper/Gold",
"zh": "\u94dc\uff0f\u91d1 \u6bd4"
},
{
"key": "dxy",
"en": "Dollar (20d %\u0394)",
"zh": "\u7f8e\u5143\uff0820\u65e5 %\u53d8\u52a8\uff09"
}
],
"dissent": [
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"en": "SKEW (tail pricing)",
"zh": "SKEW \u5c3e\u90e8\u5b9a\u4ef7"
}
],
"verdict_en": "clean risk-on",
"verdict_zh": "\u4e00\u81f4\u504f\u597d\u98ce\u9669"
},
"positioning": {
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"smart_money_lean": "bearish",
"cot_washed_out": false,
"cot_crowded_long": false,
"insider_breadth": -0.658,
"price_up": true
}
},
"fear_greed": {
"dial": 52,
"label_en": "Neutral",
"label_zh": "\u4e2d\u6027",
"legs_included": [
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"key": "spx_momentum",
"name_en": "SPX momentum (vs 125d MA)",
"name_zh": "\u6807\u666e\u52a8\u91cf\uff08\u5bf9\u6bd4125\u65e5\u5747\u7ebf\uff09",
"orientation": "higher=greed",
"unit": "% above/below MA",
"value": 6.23,
"z": 0.596,
"pct": 73,
"freshness": "fresh",
"obs_count": 8422,
"last_date": "2026-07-16"
},
{
"key": "nh_nl_ratio",
"name_en": "52-week strength (new-high ratio)",
"name_zh": "52\u5468\u5f3a\u52bf\uff08\u65b0\u9ad8\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff09",
"orientation": "higher=greed",
"unit": "ratio 0-1",
"value": 0.857,
"z": 0.357,
"pct": 45,
"freshness": "fresh",
"obs_count": 14955,
"last_date": "2026-07-15"
},
{
"key": "mcclellan",
"name_en": "McClellan oscillator",
"name_zh": "\u9ea6\u514b\u83b1\u4f26\u632f\u8361\u5668",
"orientation": "higher=greed",
"unit": "oscillator",
"value": 2.2,
"z": 0.054,
"pct": 51,
"freshness": "fresh",
"obs_count": 16192,
"last_date": "2026-07-15"
},
{
"key": "hy_oas",
"name_en": "Junk demand (HY OAS)",
"name_zh": "\u9ad8\u6536\u76ca\u9700\u6c42\uff08HY \u5229\u5dee\uff09",
"orientation": "lower=greed",
"unit": "OAS bps",
"value": 2.72,
"z": 0.968,
"pct": 96,
"freshness": "fresh",
"obs_count": 7713,
"last_date": "2026-07-14"
},
{
"key": "safe_haven",
"name_en": "Safe haven demand (SPY \u2212 TLT 20d)",
"name_zh": "\u907f\u9669\u9700\u6c42\uff08SPY\u2212TLT 20\u65e5\uff09",
"orientation": "higher=greed",
"unit": "20d ret diff %",
"value": 2.25,
"z": 0.264,
"pct": 59,
"freshness": "fresh",
"obs_count": 6009,
"last_date": "2026-07-16"
},
{
"key": "vix_level",
"name_en": "VIX level",
"name_zh": "VIX \u6c34\u5e73",
"orientation": "lower=greed",
"unit": "VIX points",
"value": 16.7,
"z": 0.352,
"pct": 55,
"freshness": "fresh",
"obs_count": 9203,
"last_date": "2026-07-16"
},
{
"key": "vix_trend",
"name_en": "VIX trend (20d change)",
"name_zh": "VIX \u8d8b\u52bf\uff0820\u65e5\u53d8\u52a8\uff09",
"orientation": "lower=greed",
"unit": "VIX 20d delta",
"value": -1.71,
"z": 0.323,
"pct": 69,
"freshness": "fresh",
"obs_count": 9183,
"last_date": "2026-07-16"
},
{
"key": "vix_term",
"name_en": "VIX term structure (VIX/VIX3M)",
"name_zh": "VIX \u671f\u9650\u7ed3\u6784\uff08VIX/VIX3M\uff09",
"orientation": "lower=greed",
"unit": "ratio (>=1=backwardation)",
"value": 0.858,
"z": 0.608,
"pct": 71,
"freshness": "fresh",
"obs_count": 5029,
"last_date": "2026-07-16"
},
{
"key": "skew",
"name_en": "CBOE SKEW (tail risk pricing)",
"name_zh": "CBOE SKEW\uff08\u5c3e\u90e8\u98ce\u9669\u5b9a\u4ef7\uff09",
"orientation": "lower=greed",
"unit": "SKEW index",
"value": 148.5,
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"freshness": "fresh",
"obs_count": 9184,
"last_date": "2026-07-15"
},
{
"key": "naaim",
"name_en": "NAAIM exposure",
"name_zh": "NAAIM \u4ed3\u4f4d\u655e\u53e3",
"orientation": "higher=greed",
"unit": "% exposure 0-200",
"value": 83.0,
"z": 0.659,
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"freshness": "fresh",
"obs_count": 1044,
"last_date": "2026-07-08"
},
{
"key": "insider",
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"orientation": "higher=greed",
"unit": "net USD billions",
"value": -17.8,
"z": -0.372,
"pct": 19,
"freshness": "stale",
"obs_count": 81,
"last_date": "2026-03-31"
}
],
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"young_tiles": [
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"freshness": "young",
"obs_count": 28,
"name_en": "CBOE put/call ratio",
"name_zh": "CBOE \u770b\u8dcc/\u770b\u6da8\u6bd4\u7387",
"value": 1.231,
"as_of": "2026-07-13",
"note_en": "Series too young to z-score (< 252 obs); shown as raw context.",
"note_zh": "\u5e8f\u5217\u8fc7\u77ed\uff0c\u65e0\u6cd5\u8ba1\u7b97 z \u5206\u6570\uff08< 252 \u6761\uff09\uff1b\u663e\u793a\u4e3a\u539f\u59cb\u53c2\u8003\u3002"
},
{
"key": "aaii",
"freshness": "young",
"obs_count": 23,
"name_en": "AAII sentiment (bullish %)",
"name_zh": "AAII \u60c5\u7eea\uff08\u770b\u591a\u5360\u6bd4\uff09",
"value": 36.3,
"as_of": "2026-07-08",
"note_en": "Series too young to z-score (< 104 weekly obs); shown as raw context.",
"note_zh": "\u5e8f\u5217\u8fc7\u77ed\uff0c\u65e0\u6cd5\u8ba1\u7b97 z \u5206\u6570\uff08< 104 \u5468\u6761\uff09\uff1b\u663e\u793a\u4e3a\u539f\u59cb\u53c2\u8003\u3002"
}
],
"n_legs_qualifying": 11,
"as_of": "2026-07-16",
"generated_utc": "2026-07-17T15:33:21Z",
"disclaimer_en": "Sentiment context only \u2014 display-only composite of public market indicators. Never scored, never feeds the regime engine, no forward claim. Greed/fear readings are not contrarian signals without regime context.",
"disclaimer_zh": "\u4ec5\u4e3a\u60c5\u7eea\u53c2\u8003 \u2014 \u516c\u5f00\u5e02\u573a\u6307\u6807\u7684\u4ec5\u5c55\u793a\u5408\u6210\u3002\u4e0d\u8ba1\u5206\uff0c\u4e0d\u8fdb\u5165\u5468\u671f\u5f15\u64ce\uff0c\u65e0\u524d\u77bb\u6027\u5224\u65ad\u3002\u8d2a\u5a6a/\u6050\u60e7\u8bfb\u6570\u82e5\u65e0\u5468\u671f\u80cc\u666f\uff0c\u4e0d\u6784\u6210\u53cd\u5411\u4fe1\u53f7\u3002"
},
"vol_weather": {
"chips": [
{
"key": "vix_level",
"name_en": "VIX level",
"name_zh": "VIX \u6c34\u5e73",
"value": 16.7,
"pctile": 44,
"band": "normal",
"state": "normal",
"plain_en": "Volatility is in a normal range.",
"plain_zh": "\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u5904\u4e8e\u6b63\u5e38\u533a\u95f4\u3002",
"freshness": "fresh",
"obs_count": 9203,
"last_date": "2026-07-16",
"spark": [
69,
65,
59,
56,
66,
43,
45,
62,
51,
52,
46,
48,
65,
61,
60,
50,
66,
59,
63,
53,
40,
39,
36,
47,
27,
20,
14,
24,
21,
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87,
72,
79,
88,
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46,
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68,
60,
37,
39,
28,
18,
28,
47,
23,
10,
50,
38,
20,
44
]
},
{
"key": "vix_velocity",
"name_en": "VIX velocity (5d change)",
"name_zh": "VIX \u901f\u5ea6\uff085\u65e5\u53d8\u52a8\uff09",
"value": 0.89,
"pctile": 68,
"band": "quiet",
"state": "quiet",
"chg20_pctile": 25,
"plain_en": "Volatility change is within normal daily variation.",
"plain_zh": "\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u53d8\u5316\u5904\u4e8e\u6b63\u5e38\u65e5\u5e38\u6ce2\u52a8\u8303\u56f4\u5185\u3002",
"freshness": "fresh",
"obs_count": 9203,
"last_date": "2026-07-16",
"spark": [
79,
75,
36,
25,
51,
15,
22,
58,
43,
27,
55,
55,
53,
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62,
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76,
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51,
41,
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28,
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91,
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9,
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11,
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59,
10,
16,
11,
11,
24,
62,
36,
28,
80,
59,
27,
68
]
},
{
"key": "vvix_vix",
"name_en": "VVIX / VIX divergence",
"name_zh": "VVIX / VIX \u80cc\u79bb",
"value": 5.862,
"pctile": 20,
"band": "normal",
"state": "normal",
"vvix_pctile": 20,
"vix_pctile": 20,
"divergence": false,
"plain_en": "Implied vol-of-vol is within normal range.",
"plain_zh": "\u9690\u542b\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u7684\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u5904\u4e8e\u6b63\u5e38\u533a\u95f4\u3002",
"freshness": "fresh",
"obs_count": 5061,
"last_date": "2026-07-15",
"spark": [
46,
62,
49,
48,
41,
25,
13,
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30,
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31,
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25,
40,
49,
51,
50,
27,
21,
13,
28,
38,
16,
13,
6,
3,
3,
3,
16,
11,
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66,
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36,
79,
61,
28,
5,
5,
31,
6,
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58,
38,
16,
7,
7,
4,
9,
8,
4,
6,
18,
9,
5,
36,
28,
20
]
},
{
"key": "term_slope",
"name_en": "VIX term slope (9D / 3M)",
"name_zh": "VIX \u671f\u9650\u659c\u7387\uff089D / 3M\uff09",
"value": 0.717,
"pctile": 27,
"band": "normal",
"state": "normal",
"plain_en": "Term structure is normal \u2014 vol market shows no unusual stress.",
"plain_zh": "\u671f\u9650\u7ed3\u6784\u6b63\u5e38\uff0c\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u5e02\u573a\u65e0\u5f02\u5e38\u538b\u529b\u3002",
"freshness": "fresh",
"obs_count": 3904,
"last_date": "2026-07-16",
"spark": [
28,
64,
74,
59,
66,
52,
58,
60,
64,
24,
16,
54,
19,
25,
24,
15,
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51,
39,
31,
46,
62,
56,
31,
20,
20,
39,
13,
13,
12,
23,
13,
13,
6,
99,
88,
95,
100,
89,
72,
63,
64,
82,
27,
69,
84,
80,
79,
69,
60,
32,
16,
4,
6,
23,
39,
7,
2,
3,
27
]
},
{
"key": "vix1d",
"name_en": "VIX1D (intraday vol demand)",
"name_zh": "VIX1D\uff08\u76d8\u4e2d\u6ce2\u52a8\u9700\u6c42\uff09",
"value": 9.51,
"pctile": 12,
"band": "low",
"state": "low",
"plain_en": "Very short-term vol demand is low \u2014 intraday hedging costs are below average.",
"plain_zh": "\u8d85\u77ed\u671f\u6ce2\u52a8\u9700\u6c42\u504f\u4f4e\uff0c\u76d8\u4e2d\u5bf9\u51b2\u6210\u672c\u4f4e\u4e8e\u5747\u503c\u3002",
"freshness": "fresh",
"obs_count": 1045,
"last_date": "2026-07-15",
"spark": [
39,
68,
42,
62,
71,
22,
34,
80,
34,
55,
48,
25,
35,
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49,
33,
27,
34,
39,
76,
54,
55,
73,
61,
79,
31,
17,
28,
49,
12,
7,
36,
24,
97,
72,
88,
95,
89,
86,
55,
71,
88,
69,
50,
76,
76,
70,
81,
56,
37,
53,
55,
6,
25,
51,
20,
15,
65,
23,
12
]
},
{
"key": "dspx",
"name_en": "DSPX (single-stock vol vs index)",
"name_zh": "DSPX\uff08\u4e2a\u80a1\u6ce2\u52a8 vs \u6307\u6570\uff09",
"value": 46.77,
"pctile": 98,
"band": "high",
"state": "high",
"plain_en": "Single-stock vol is running well above index vol \u2014 individual names are unusually risky relative to the market.",
"plain_zh": "\u4e2a\u80a1\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u8fdc\u9ad8\u4e8e\u6307\u6570\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\uff0c\u4e2a\u80a1\u76f8\u5bf9\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u6ea2\u4ef7\u504f\u9ad8\u3002",
"freshness": "fresh",
"obs_count": 3035,
"last_date": "2026-07-15",
"spark": [
88,
93,
98,
96,
99,
100,
99,
99,
87,
79,
79,
88,
88,
86,
95,
99,
98,
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99,
97,
97,
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82,
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98,
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100,
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98,
98,
100,
100,
99,
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100,
99,
100,
100,
99,
99,
99,
98
],
"vixeq_minus_vix": 33.7
},
{
"key": "cor1m",
"name_en": "COR1M (1-month implied correlation)",
"name_zh": "COR1M\uff081\u4e2a\u6708\u9690\u542b\u76f8\u5173\u6027\uff09",
"value": 3.7,
"pctile": 1,
"band": "low",
"state": "low",
"plain_en": "Stocks are moving more independently \u2014 the market is rewarding stock selection.",
"plain_zh": "\u80a1\u7968\u8d70\u52bf\u66f4\u52a0\u72ec\u7acb\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u6b63\u5728\u5956\u52b1\u4e2a\u80a1\u9009\u62e9\u80fd\u529b\u3002",
"freshness": "fresh",
"obs_count": 5164,
"last_date": "2026-07-15",
"spark": [
33,
35,
26,
36,
25,
11,
16,
26,
20,
33,
52,
32,
28,
23,
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26,
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8,
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4,
0,
1,
0,
0,
1,
1,
0,
0,
3,
2,
1
]
},
{
"key": "cor3m",
"name_en": "COR3M (3-month implied correlation)",
"name_zh": "COR3M\uff083\u4e2a\u6708\u9690\u542b\u76f8\u5173\u6027\uff09",
"value": 7.23,
"pctile": 1,
"band": "low",
"state": "low",
"plain_en": "Stocks are expected to behave more independently over the coming quarter.",
"plain_zh": "\u9884\u8ba1\u672a\u6765\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b63\u5ea6\u80a1\u7968\u8d70\u52bf\u5c06\u66f4\u52a0\u72ec\u7acb\u3002",
"freshness": "fresh",
"obs_count": 5149,
"last_date": "2026-07-15",
"spark": [
49,
46,
39,
46,
37,
17,
22,
33,
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38,
53,
35,
14,
14,
7,
4,
4,
1,
0,
4,
1,
10,
1,
1,
1,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
1,
2,
6,
3,
4,
26,
4,
3,
2,
3,
4,
2,
1,
6,
4,
4,
5,
3,
0,
1,
1,
0,
1,
2,
0,
0,
4,
1,
1
]
}
],
"as_of": "2026-07-16",
"generated_utc": "2026-07-17T15:33:22Z",
"n_young": 0,
"disclaimer_en": "Display-only context \u2014 volatility surface indicators from public CBOE / Yahoo data. Never scored, no forward claim. These chips describe the current vol environment; they do not predict direction.",
"disclaimer_zh": "\u4ec5\u4f9b\u5c55\u793a\u7684\u80cc\u666f \u2014 \u6765\u81ea\u516c\u5f00 CBOE / Yahoo \u6570\u636e\u7684\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u66f2\u9762\u6307\u6807\u3002\u4e0d\u8ba1\u5206\uff0c\u65e0\u524d\u77bb\u5224\u65ad\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u82af\u7247\u63cf\u8ff0\u5f53\u524d\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u73af\u5883\uff0c\u4e0d\u9884\u6d4b\u65b9\u5411\u3002"
},
"breadth_split": {
"as_of": "2026-07-15",
"cohort_sizes": {
"ai_core": 56,
"ai_infra_power": 15,
"ai_total": 71,
"non_ai": 438,
"universe": 509,
"ai_core_tagged": 120,
"ai_infra_power_tagged": 30
},
"latest": {
"ai_pct50": 45.7,
"nonai_pct50": 65.3,
"spread_50": -19.6,
"ai_pct200": 75.7,
"nonai_pct200": 66.1,
"spread_200": 9.6,
"ai_adv_share": 32.4,
"nonai_adv_share": 54.5,
"spread_adv": -22.1
},
"spark": {
"spread_50": [
-17.8,
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-13.5,
-6.6,
-1.2,
-3.5,
-6.6,
-4.7,
-7.1,
-12.9,
-14.7,
-10.5,
-4.6,
-1.8,
-3.5,
-4.1,
-7.4,
-7.6,
-11.3,
-4.7,
-7.1,
-8.8,
-4.5,
-1.9,
-4.0,
-5.2,
-7.2,
-8.0,
-0.1,
0.7,
-4.3,
9.5,
12.9,
17.4,
12.2,
13.7,
16.8,
22.0,
26.9,
33.5,
24.3,
27.9,
22.0,
27.8,
11.7,
13.6,
4.8,
6.6,
16.4,
19.5,
17.2,
26.2,
14.3,
16.5,
21.3,
16.3,
18.7,
18.9,
21.3,
20.3,
14.0,
17.4,
25.6,
16.9,
26.5,
22.9,
23.7,
21.9,
19.7,
24.2,
34.6,
29.2,
19.7,
20.8,
20.8,
19.8,
22.0,
26.1,
26.6,
28.0,
18.9,
23.1,
20.3,
20.2,
26.4,
24.0,
25.4,
24.0,
26.3,
31.0,
28.7,
32.9,
26.6,
12.8,
15.6,
-0.6,
-9.3,
-5.6,
-4.6,
-0.3,
-4.5,
-2.9,
3.8,
8.9,
2.6,
-0.9,
2.4,
-11.1,
-2.3,
-2.5,
-8.9,
-21.9,
-13.1,
-25.7,
-18.2,
-13.4,
-16.9,
-25.5,
-12.7,
-19.6
]
},
"young": false,
"young_note": null,
"tag_version": "finviz:2026-06-27|membership:2026-07-03",
"stance_en": "AI-linked names lagging while the rest holds up",
"stance_zh": "AI \u76f8\u5173\u4e2a\u80a1\u843d\u540e\uff0c\u975e AI \u677f\u5757\u76f8\u5bf9\u652f\u6491",
"disclaimer_en": "Display-only composition decomposition \u2014 shows whether tape health is broad or concentrated in AI-adjacent names. Never scored, never feeds any gate or regime engine, no forward claim.",
"disclaimer_zh": "\u4ec5\u4f9b\u5c55\u793a\u7684\u6210\u5206\u5206\u89e3 \u2014 \u663e\u793a\u5e02\u573a\u5065\u5eb7\u5ea6\u662f\u5426\u96c6\u4e2d\u4e8e AI \u76f8\u5173\u4e2a\u80a1\u3002\u4e0d\u8ba1\u5206\uff0c\u4e0d\u8fdb\u5165\u4efb\u4f55\u95f8\u95e8\u6216\u5468\u671f\u5f15\u64ce\uff0c\u65e0\u524d\u77bb\u6027\u5224\u65ad\u3002"
},
"evw_snap": {
"schema": "event_window.snapshot.v1",
"asof": "2026-07-17",
"available": true,
"is_context_only": true,
"phase": "quiet",
"td_to_cpi": null,
"td_to_fomc": null,
"td_to_nfp": null,
"td_to_ppi": null,
"claims_day": true,
"collision_states": {
"cpi_fomc_same_week": false,
"cpi_in_opex_week": false,
"fomc_in_opex_week": false,
"triple_stack": false
},
"active_collisions": [],
"read": "quiet: no statistically robust calendar edge measured (display context).",
"read_zh": "quiet\u9636\u6bb5\uff1a\u672a\u6d4b\u5f97\u7edf\u8ba1\u663e\u8457\u7684\u65e5\u5386\u6548\u5e94\uff08\u4ec5\u4f9b\u53c2\u8003\uff09\u3002",
"phase_stats": {
"mean_fwd_pct": 0.263,
"excess_pct": 0.031,
"fwd_vol": 14.6,
"t_hac": 0.595,
"n": 6656,
"sign_stable": false,
"significant": false,
"post_2021_excess_pct": 0.047,
"post_2021_n": 999
},
"ex_ante": null,
"seasonality": {
"available": true,
"fwd_days": 5,
"base_fwd_pct": 0.232,
"n": 8417,
"phases": {
"fomc_day": {
"mean_fwd_pct": -0.075,
"excess_pct": -0.307,
"fwd_vol": 17.14,
"t_hac": -2.158,
"n": 216,
"sign_stable": true,
"significant": true,
"post_2021_excess_pct": 0.037,
"post_2021_n": 44
},
"fomc_week": {
"mean_fwd_pct": 0.168,
"excess_pct": -0.064,
"fwd_vol": 17.06,
"t_hac": -0.457,
"n": 864,
"sign_stable": false,
"significant": false,
"post_2021_excess_pct": -0.018,
"post_2021_n": 176
},
"post_fomc_3d": {
"mean_fwd_pct": 0.096,
"excess_pct": -0.136,
"fwd_vol": 15.97,
"t_hac": -1.054,
"n": 648,
"sign_stable": false,
"significant": false,
"post_2021_excess_pct": 0.35,
"post_2021_n": 132
},
"quiet": {
"mean_fwd_pct": 0.263,
"excess_pct": 0.031,
"fwd_vol": 14.6,
"t_hac": 0.595,
"n": 6656,
"sign_stable": false,
"significant": false,
"post_2021_excess_pct": 0.047,
"post_2021_n": 999
}
},
"pre_fomc_drift_note": "Pre-FOMC drift (Lucca-Moench) expected DEAD post-2016 \u2014 house ruling. Null printed, not hidden."
},
"doctrine": "Event-window calendar seasonality \u2014 thin, widely-known calendar tilts measured on price history. Context only, never a buy/sell. Pre-FOMC drift expected DEAD post-2016 (house ruling)."
},
"growth_score": 0.2,
"inflation_score": 0.24,
"components_confirming": [
"growth \u00b7 copper vs gold\u589e\u957f \u00b7 \u94dc\u5bf9\u9ec4\u91d1",
"growth \u00b7 market breadth\u589e\u957f \u00b7 \u5e02\u573a\u5e7f\u5ea6",
"growth \u00b7 payrolls\u589e\u957f \u00b7 \u975e\u519c\u5c31\u4e1a",
"growth \u00b7 industrial production\u589e\u957f \u00b7 \u5de5\u4e1a\u751f\u4ea7",
"growth \u00b7 wei_trend\u589e\u957f \u00b7 wei_trend",
"inflation \u00b7 energy sector\u901a\u80c0 \u00b7 \u80fd\u6e90\u677f\u5757",
"inflation \u00b7 inflation-winners basket\u901a\u80c0 \u00b7 \u901a\u80c0\u53d7\u76ca\u7bee\u5b50"
],
"components_contradicting": [
"growth \u00b7 consumer confidence trade\u589e\u957f \u00b7 \u6d88\u8d39\u4fe1\u5fc3\u4ea4\u6613",
"growth \u00b7 cyclical sectors\u589e\u957f \u00b7 \u5468\u671f\u6027\u677f\u5757",
"inflation \u00b7 sticky_cpi_direction\u901a\u80c0 \u00b7 sticky_cpi_direction"
],
"commodities": [
{
"ticker": "GC=F",
"name": "Gold",
"price": 3994.5,
"above50": false,
"above200": false,
"pct_vs_50dma": -7.0,
"pct_vs_200dma": -10.8,
"rsi14": 39.0,
"macd_pos": true,
"off_52w_high_pct": -24.9,
"season_this": "Jul: +0.9% avg, up 54% of years (n=26)",
"season_this_zh": "7\u6708\uff1a\u5e73\u5747 +0.9%\uff0c54% \u7684\u5e74\u4efd\u4e0a\u6da8\uff08n=26\uff09",
"mom_60d_pct": -15.4
},
{
"ticker": "CL=F",
"name": "Crude Oil",
"price": 79.23,
"above50": false,
"above200": true,
"pct_vs_50dma": -5.7,
"pct_vs_200dma": 6.0,
"rsi14": 55.0,
"macd_pos": true,
"off_52w_high_pct": -29.9,
"season_this": "Jul: +1.2% avg, up 69% of years (n=26)",
"season_this_zh": "7\u6708\uff1a\u5e73\u5747 +1.2%\uff0c69% \u7684\u5e74\u4efd\u4e0a\u6da8\uff08n=26\uff09",
"mom_60d_pct": -16.1
},
{
"ticker": "HG=F",
"name": "Copper",
"price": 6.26,
"above50": false,
"above200": true,
"pct_vs_50dma": -0.9,
"pct_vs_200dma": 8.9,
"rsi14": 51.0,
"macd_pos": true,
"off_52w_high_pct": -5.9,
"season_this": "Jul: +1.5% avg, up 62% of years (n=26)",
"season_this_zh": "7\u6708\uff1a\u5e73\u5747 +1.5%\uff0c62% \u7684\u5e74\u4efd\u4e0a\u6da8\uff08n=26\uff09",
"mom_60d_pct": 3.9
},
{
"ticker": "DX-Y.NYB",
"name": "US Dollar",
"price": 100.73,
"above50": true,
"above200": true,
"pct_vs_50dma": 0.7,
"pct_vs_200dma": 1.7,
"rsi14": 51.0,
"macd_pos": false,
"off_52w_high_pct": -0.9,
"season_this": "Jul: -0.2% avg, up 48% of years (n=56)",
"season_this_zh": "7\u6708\uff1a\u5e73\u5747 -0.2%\uff0c48% \u7684\u5e74\u4efd\u4e0a\u6da8\uff08n=56\uff09",
"mom_60d_pct": 2.0
}
],
"vix": {
"last": 16.729999542236328,
"chg": 1.0599994659423828,
"pct": 6.7645147465313915,
"hi": 22.219999313354492,
"lo": 15.029999732971191,
"prev": 15.670000076293945,
"days": 30,
"regime": "normal\u6b63\u5e38",
"tone": "muted",
"ratio": 0.8579486944736578,
"rword": "contango\u6b63\u5411",
"pctile": 44.62393789992657
},
"positioning": [
{
"name": "S&P 500 futures speculators\u6807\u666e500 \u671f\u8d27\u6295\u673a\u8005",
"pct": 42.62841894596397,
"label": "normal\u6b63\u5e38",
"verdict": "nothing notable\u65e0\u663e\u8457",
"left": "crowded short\u62e5\u6324\u505a\u7a7a",
"right": "crowded long\u62e5\u6324\u505a\u591a",
"tip": "Net bets of speculative futures traders on the S&P 500, as % of all open contracts (CFTC weekly data). Deeply negative + low percentile = everyone's already short \u2014 fuel for squeezes. Very high = crowded long. Today: -2.2% of open contracts, 43th percentile of 30 years (as of 2026-07-07, 3-day reporting lag).\u6295\u673a\u6027\u671f\u8d27\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u5728\u6807\u666e500\u4e0a\u7684\u51c0\u5934\u5bf8\uff0c\u5360\u5168\u90e8\u672a\u5e73\u4ed3\u5408\u7ea6\u7684\u767e\u5206\u6bd4\uff08CFTC \u5468\u5ea6\u6570\u636e\uff09\u3002\u6df1\u5ea6\u4e3a\u8d1f + \u4f4e\u767e\u5206\u4f4d = \u5927\u5bb6\u90fd\u5df2\u505a\u7a7a \u2014 \u903c\u7a7a\u71c3\u6599\u3002\u6781\u9ad8 = \u62e5\u6324\u505a\u591a\u3002 \u4eca\u65e5\uff1a\u5360\u672a\u5e73\u4ed3\u5408\u7ea6 -2.2%\uff0c30\u5e74\u5185\u7b2c 43 \u767e\u5206\u4f4d\uff08\u622a\u81f3 2026-07-07\uff0c\u62a5\u544a\u5ef6\u8fdf3\u5929\uff09\u3002"
},
{
"name": "10-yr Treasury futures speculators10\u5e74\u671f\u7f8e\u503a \u671f\u8d27\u6295\u673a\u8005",
"pct": 6.136087484811665,
"label": "crowded short\u62e5\u6324\u505a\u7a7a",
"verdict": "everyone is already short \u2014 stretched; squeezes start here\u5927\u5bb6\u90fd\u5df2\u505a\u7a7a \u2014 \u5df2\u62c9\u4f38\uff1b\u903c\u7a7a\u7531\u6b64\u5f00\u59cb",
"left": "crowded short\u62e5\u6324\u505a\u7a7a",
"right": "crowded long\u62e5\u6324\u505a\u591a",
"tip": "Speculators' net position in 10-year Treasury futures. Extreme shorts have historically preceded falling yields (bond rallies), and vice versa. Today: -15.3% of open contracts, 6th percentile of 30 years (as of 2026-07-07, 3-day reporting lag).\u6295\u673a\u8005\u572810\u5e74\u671f\u7f8e\u503a\u671f\u8d27\u4e0a\u7684\u51c0\u5934\u5bf8\u3002\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u6781\u7aef\u505a\u7a7a\u5f80\u5f80\u5148\u4e8e\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u4e0b\u884c\uff08\u503a\u5238\u4e0a\u6da8\uff09\uff0c\u53cd\u4e4b\u4ea6\u7136\u3002 \u4eca\u65e5\uff1a\u5360\u672a\u5e73\u4ed3\u5408\u7ea6 -15.3%\uff0c30\u5e74\u5185\u7b2c 6 \u767e\u5206\u4f4d\uff08\u622a\u81f3 2026-07-07\uff0c\u62a5\u544a\u5ef6\u8fdf3\u5929\uff09\u3002"
},
{
"name": "US Dollar futures speculators\u7f8e\u5143 \u671f\u8d27\u6295\u673a\u8005",
"pct": 60.25316455696203,
"label": "leaning long\u504f\u5411\u505a\u591a",
"verdict": "above normal, nothing extreme\u9ad8\u4e8e\u6b63\u5e38\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0d\u6781\u7aef",
"left": "crowded short\u62e5\u6324\u505a\u7a7a",
"right": "crowded long\u62e5\u6324\u505a\u591a",
"tip": "Speculators' net position on the dollar index. Extremes tend to mark dollar turning points, which matter for commodities and foreign earnings. Today: +24.9% of open contracts, 60th percentile of 30 years (as of 2026-07-07, 3-day reporting lag).\u6295\u673a\u8005\u5728\u7f8e\u5143\u6307\u6570\u4e0a\u7684\u51c0\u5934\u5bf8\u3002\u6781\u7aef\u503c\u5f80\u5f80\u6807\u5fd7\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u8f6c\u6298\u70b9\uff0c\u5bf9\u5927\u5b97\u5546\u54c1\u4e0e\u6d77\u5916\u76c8\u5229\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\u3002 \u4eca\u65e5\uff1a\u5360\u672a\u5e73\u4ed3\u5408\u7ea6 +24.9%\uff0c30\u5e74\u5185\u7b2c 60 \u767e\u5206\u4f4d\uff08\u622a\u81f3 2026-07-07\uff0c\u62a5\u544a\u5ef6\u8fdf3\u5929\uff09\u3002"
},
{
"name": "Gold futures speculators\u9ec4\u91d1 \u671f\u8d27\u6295\u673a\u8005",
"pct": 97.99392097264437,
"label": "extreme long\u6781\u5ea6\u505a\u591a",
"verdict": "everyone is already long \u2014 most extreme in our records; contrarian alert\u5927\u5bb6\u90fd\u5df2\u505a\u591a \u2014 \u6211\u4eec\u8bb0\u5f55\u4e2d\u6700\u6781\u7aef\uff1b\u53cd\u5411\u9884\u8b66",
"left": "crowded short\u62e5\u6324\u505a\u7a7a",
"right": "crowded long\u62e5\u6324\u505a\u591a",
"tip": "Speculators' net position in gold futures. Near the 100th percentile = the most crowded gold trade in decades \u2014 vulnerable to shakeouts. Today: +52.2% of open contracts, 98th percentile of 30 years (as of 2026-07-07, 3-day reporting lag).\u6295\u673a\u8005\u5728\u9ec4\u91d1\u671f\u8d27\u4e0a\u7684\u51c0\u5934\u5bf8\u3002\u63a5\u8fd1\u7b2c100\u767e\u5206\u4f4d = \u6570\u5341\u5e74\u6765\u6700\u62e5\u6324\u7684\u9ec4\u91d1\u4ea4\u6613 \u2014 \u6613\u906d\u6d17\u76d8\u3002 \u4eca\u65e5\uff1a\u5360\u672a\u5e73\u4ed3\u5408\u7ea6 +52.2%\uff0c30\u5e74\u5185\u7b2c 98 \u767e\u5206\u4f4d\uff08\u622a\u81f3 2026-07-07\uff0c\u62a5\u544a\u5ef6\u8fdf3\u5929\uff09\u3002"
},
{
"name": "Pro fund managers\u4e13\u4e1a\u57fa\u91d1\u7ecf\u7406",
"pct": 70.21072796934867,
"label": "leaning invested\u504f\u5411\u91cd\u4ed3",
"verdict": "above normal, nothing extreme\u9ad8\u4e8e\u6b63\u5e38\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0d\u6781\u7aef",
"left": "all cash\u5168\u73b0\u91d1",
"right": "all-in\u6ee1\u4ed3",
"tip": "NAAIM weekly survey of professional active managers' stock exposure (0 = all cash, 100 = fully invested, >100 = leveraged). Extremes are contrarian. Today: 83, 70th percentile since 2006 (as of 2026-07-08).NAAIM \u5bf9\u4e13\u4e1a\u4e3b\u52a8\u578b\u7ba1\u7406\u8005\u80a1\u7968\u655e\u53e3\u7684\u5468\u5ea6\u8c03\u67e5\uff080 = \u5168\u73b0\u91d1\uff0c100 = \u6ee1\u4ed3\uff0c>100 = \u52a0\u6760\u6746\uff09\u3002\u6781\u7aef\u503c\u5177\u53cd\u5411\u610f\u4e49\u3002\u4eca\u65e5\uff1a83\uff0c2006\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\u7b2c 70 \u767e\u5206\u4f4d\uff08\u622a\u81f3 2026-07-08\uff09\u3002"
},
{
"name": "Options hedging mood\u671f\u6743\u5bf9\u51b2\u60c5\u7eea",
"pct": null,
"label": "guarded\u8b66\u60d5",
"verdict": "more puts than calls \u2014 mild caution\u770b\u8dcc\u591a\u4e8e\u770b\u6da8 \u2014 \u8f7b\u5ea6\u8c28\u614e",
"left": "",
"right": "",
"tip": "Put/call volume ratio on S&P index options, computed from CBOE's chain: bearish bets \u00f7 bullish bets traded today. Above ~1.3 = heavy hedging; below ~0.8 = complacency. Today: 1.25 (as of 2026-07-13). A young series \u2014 labels are based on standard thresholds until enough history accrues.\u6807\u666e\u6307\u6570\u671f\u6743\u7684\u770b\u8dcc/\u770b\u6da8\u6210\u4ea4\u91cf\u6bd4\uff0c\u7531 CBOE \u671f\u6743\u94fe\u8ba1\u7b97\uff1a\u4eca\u65e5\u770b\u7a7a\u62bc\u6ce8 \u00f7 \u770b\u591a\u62bc\u6ce8\u3002\u9ad8\u4e8e\u7ea61.3 = \u5927\u91cf\u5bf9\u51b2\uff1b\u4f4e\u4e8e\u7ea60.8 = \u81ea\u6ee1\u3002\u4eca\u65e5\uff1a1.25\uff08\u622a\u81f3 2026-07-13\uff09\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u8f83\u65b0\u7684\u5e8f\u5217 \u2014 \u5728\u79ef\u7d2f\u8db3\u591f\u5386\u53f2\u524d\uff0c\u6807\u7b7e\u57fa\u4e8e\u6807\u51c6\u9608\u503c\u3002"
},
{
"name": "Market-maker effect\u505a\u5e02\u5546\u6548\u5e94",
"pct": null,
"label": "dampening swings\u6291\u5236\u6ce2\u52a8",
"verdict": "market-makers' hedging absorbs moves \u2014 calmer tape likely\u505a\u5e02\u5546\u5bf9\u51b2\u5438\u6536\u6ce2\u52a8 \u2014 \u76d8\u9762\u53ef\u80fd\u66f4\u5e73\u9759",
"left": "",
"right": "",
"tip": "Estimated dealer gamma (GEX) from the S&P options chain, standard assumption (dealers long calls/short puts). Positive = their hedging dampens market moves; negative = it amplifies them. Today: +2bn per 1% move (as of 2026-07-13). An estimate, not ground truth.\u7531\u6807\u666e\u671f\u6743\u94fe\u4f30\u7b97\u7684\u505a\u5e02\u5546 gamma\uff08GEX\uff09\uff0c\u91c7\u7528\u6807\u51c6\u5047\u8bbe\uff08\u505a\u5e02\u5546\u6301\u6709\u591a\u5934\u770b\u6da8/\u7a7a\u5934\u770b\u8dcc\uff09\u3002\u6b63\u503c = \u5176\u5bf9\u51b2\u6291\u5236\u5e02\u573a\u6ce2\u52a8\uff1b\u8d1f\u503c = \u653e\u5927\u6ce2\u52a8\u3002\u4eca\u65e5\uff1a\u6bcf1%\u6ce2\u52a8 +2\u5341\u4ebf \uff08\u622a\u81f3 2026-07-13\uff09\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u4f30\u7b97\uff0c\u5e76\u975e\u771f\u5b9e\u503c\u3002"
},
{
"name": "Fear gauge\u6050\u614c\u6307\u6807",
"pct": 29.200996359455832,
"label": "leaning calm\u504f\u5411\u5e73\u9759",
"verdict": "below normal, nothing extreme\u4f4e\u4e8e\u6b63\u5e38\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0d\u6781\u7aef",
"left": "calm\u5e73\u9759",
"right": "panic\u6050\u614c",
"tip": "VIX (30-day expected volatility) \u00f7 VIX3M (3-month). Below ~0.9 = calm; near/above 1.0 = the market fears the immediate future more than the distant one \u2014 the classic stress signature. Today: 0.858, 29th percentile since 2006.VIX\uff0830\u5929\u9884\u671f\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\uff09\u00f7 VIX3M\uff083\u4e2a\u6708\uff09\u3002\u4f4e\u4e8e\u7ea60.9 = \u5e73\u9759\uff1b\u63a5\u8fd1/\u9ad8\u4e8e1.0 = \u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u8fd1\u671f\u7684\u6050\u60e7\u8d85\u8fc7\u5bf9\u8fdc\u671f \u2014 \u7ecf\u5178\u7684\u538b\u529b\u7279\u5f81\u3002\u4eca\u65e5\uff1a0.858\uff0c2006\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\u7b2c 29 \u767e\u5206\u4f4d\u3002"
}
]
}