Oil Trend Swap原油趋势开关
Trend + vol guard on Brent — oil is a brutal buy-and-hold (it crashed in 2008, 2014-16 and 2020), so even the simple swap transforms the return profile.布伦特原油的趋势 + 波动护栏——原油买入持有极其惨烈（2008、2014-16、2020 均暴跌），因此即便简单开关也能重塑收益曲线。
As of截至 Jul 16, 2026 · Brent crude布伦特原油 · current income当前票息 ~1.26%
⚗ Experimental — display-only (Phase-0)实验性 — 仅展示（Phase-0）
A drawdown / Sharpe engine — not a yield-maximizer回撤 / 夏普引擎 — 并非收益最大化工具
Recommended allocation right now当前建议仓位
Brent crude布伦特原油66%
T-bills短期国债34%
Brent crude布伦特原油
T-bills短期国债 (cash carry现金套息)
Last change上次调整: 2026-02-18 — 33% → 66%
Current income blends the risk-asset yield (when invested) with the cash-leg yield (when de-risked).当前票息为风险资产收益（在场时）与现金腿收益（降险时）的加权。
Down-trend / vol下行趋势 / 波动 score评分 (0–100)
51
Watch — trim关注 — 减仓
Higher = more risk-off. The score sets the risk-asset weight via graded bands (below), with a 5-day debounce to cut whipsaw.分数越高越偏避险。该分数通过分级区间（见下）设定风险资产权重，并有 5 日缓冲以抑制频繁换仓。
What is driving the score分数由什么驱动
Each leg adds points to the 0–100 score (renormalised weighted mean). The bar is the current score, split by contribution.各分项为 0–100 分数贡献分值（归一化加权平均）。下方进度条为当前分数，按贡献拆分。
Filled width = the score out of 100. Empty = headroom (calm).填充宽度 = 满分100中的得分。空白 = 余量（平静）。
| Signal leg信号分项 | Intensity强度 | Weight权重 | Pub lag发布滞后 | Points贡献分 |
|---|
| Trend (time-series momentum)趋势（时间序列动量） |
33/100 |
1.0 |
0d |
22.2 |
| Realized-volatility guard已实现波动率护栏 |
88/100 |
0.5 |
1d |
29.2 |
| Composite score综合分数 | | | | 51 |
The strategy in action · benchmark with the model on top策略实战 · 基准叠加模型
Green = fully invested, amber = trimmed, clear = defensive. ▲/▼ mark every allocation change. The strategy equity (blue) is rescaled onto the benchmark axis so you can read protection vs participation directly.绿色 = 满仓，琥珀 = 减仓，空白 = 防守。▲/▼ 标注每次仓位变动。策略净值（蓝）已缩放至基准轴，可直接对比保护与参与度。
Growth of $1 (log) — vs buy & hold1美元增长（对数）— 对比买入持有
Underwater (drawdown) — vs buy & hold水下回撤 — 对比买入持有
Honest framing: this does NOT reliably beat buy-and-hold on CAGR — sitting in the cash leg through stress gives up some carry. The edge is the higher Sharpe and the much shallower max drawdown: it times the LEFT TAIL that destroys the yield (the recession/credit/rate shock), not the yield itself.诚实说明：本策略在年化收益上并不稳定跑赢买入持有 —— 压力期退守现金腿会让出部分套息。优势在于更高的夏普与明显更浅的最大回撤：它择时的是吞噬收益的左尾（衰退/信用/利率冲击），而非收益本身。
Backtest scorecard · 19.0 years vs buy & hold回测记分卡 · 19.0 年对比买入持有
CAGR
3.13%
buy & hold买入持有 0.62%
Sharpe
0.26
buy & hold买入持有 0.21
Max drawdown最大回撤
-44.4%
buy & hold买入持有 -86.8%
Time invested在场时间
76.9%
2.82x turnover/yr换手/年
Sortino
0.28
buy & hold买入持有 0.27
Income yield now当前票息
1.26%
blended risk-asset + cash风险资产 + 现金加权
Deflated Sharpe贬值夏普
0.3605
multiple-testing haircut多重检验折减 · n=8
The rule-book · risk band → weight规则手册 · 风险区间 → 权重
| Risk band风险区间 | Score分数 | Brent crude布伦特原油 weight权重 | T-bills短期国债 |
|---|
| Calm — fully invested平静 — 满仓 |
< 25 |
100% |
0% |
| Watch — trim关注 — 减仓 ◀ |
25–50 |
66% |
34% |
| Stress — de-risk压力 — 降险 |
50–75 |
33% |
67% |
| Defensive — all cash防守 — 全现金 |
≥ 75 |
0% |
100% |
A new band must hold 5 trading days before it takes effect (hysteresis kills whipsaw). Bands and leg weights are pre-registered, not tuned per result.新区间须连续保持 5 个交易日才生效（滞后机制抑制频繁换仓）。区间与分项权重为预先登记，非按结果调参。
Independent bear episodes · the true sample size独立熊市事件 · 真实样本量
| Peak峰值 | Trough谷底 | Buy & hold drawdown买入持有回撤 |
|---|
| 2008-07-03 | 2020-04-21 | -86.8% (ongoing进行中) |
A handful of independent ≥20% bears govern a get-out / get-back-in switch — effective-N, not the day count, bounds confidence. Full leave-one-crisis-out validation is a fast-follow.少数几次独立的 ≥20% 熊市决定一次离场/再入场切换 — 决定置信度的是有效样本量，而非天数。完整的留一危机验证为后续跟进。
Commodity, display-only / experimental. Benchmark = Brent crude (BZ=F) continuous front-month total-return close (2007→); the de-risked sleeve earns the T-bill yield. Brent (not WTI) avoids the 2020 negative-price artifact. The simple risk on/off baseline — trend (time-series momentum) plus a realized-vol guard. Macro legs activate once their FRED series begin (real yields/breakevens 2003, broad USD 2006). Full Phase-0 is a fast-follow.商品，仅展示 / 实验性。基准 = 布伦特原油 (BZ=F)连续近月总回报收盘价（2007→）；降险时空仓腿赚取短期国债收益。使用布伦特（而非 WTI）以规避 2020 年负价格异常。简单的风险开关基准——趋势（时间序列动量）加已实现波动率护栏。 宏观腿在其 FRED 序列开始后才激活（实际收益率/通胀预期 2003 年、广义美元 2006 年）。完整 Phase-0 为后续跟进。