Cycle & timing detail周期与时机详情
Momentum across timeframes跨周期动量
📊 Fundamentals, analyst & positioning📊 基本面、分析师与持仓
Conviction profile确信度画像 · unified verdict — cycle caps it统一结论 — 周期封顶
Relative strength相对强度 · sector-neutral residual板块中性残差?This name's return with its MARKET and SECTOR beta removed — sector-neutral residual relative strength (12-1 month); alpha z ranks it vs the whole cross-section of its own market. This is the positive-IC SELECTION leg (international developed/EM markets are momentum-persistent like the US). The entry tag is the timing context: pullback = a leader on a recent dip (the constructive entry); extended = just spiked (chase risk). Context, not a personalized buy signal.本股票剔除其市场与板块贝塔后的收益 — 板块中性残差相对强度（12-1 个月）；alpha z 为相对其所在市场横截面的排名。这是正 IC 的选股腿（国际发达／新兴市场与美国一样动量具持续性）。入场标记为时机背景：pullback＝近期回调的领先股（建设性入场）；extended＝刚急涨（追高风险）。仅作背景，非个性化买入信号。
Fundamentals基本面 · context, not a signal背景，而非信号?Descriptive valuation, profitability and dividends (from yfinance) — a backdrop to read ALONGSIDE the cycle / relative-strength signals, NOT a buy ranking. "Cheap vs sector" is not validated as a cross-sectional edge here. Fundamentals refresh on a slower cadence than price.描述性的估值、盈利与分红（来自 yfinance）—— 作为与周期／相对强度信号并读的背景，而非买入排序。"相对板块便宜"在此并未被验证为有效的横截面优势。基本面的更新频率慢于价格。
👔 Analyst & estimates分析师与预期 · sell-side consensus卖方一致预期?yfinance sell-side aggregate: the consensus rating, mean price target with its high/low range, the implied upside vs the current price, and coverage breadth. Sell-side opinion shown as coverage context, NOT an endorsement — a target is a forecast, not a validated edge.yfinance 卖方汇总：一致评级、目标价中位及其高/低区间、相对现价的隐含上行空间，以及覆盖广度。卖方观点仅作覆盖背景，并非推荐——目标价是预测，并非有效优势。
Positioning持仓与做空 · short interest & ownership空头与持股结构?Short interest (shares short + days-to-cover) and insider / institutional ownership, from yfinance. The keyless free read — SEDI Form-4-style insider transactions and IIROC short-interest detail are not machine-readable. Heavy or rising short interest is a caution; high institutional ownership is crowding context. Descriptive, not a signal.空头（做空股数＋回补天数）与内部人／机构持股，来自 yfinance。免密钥的免费读法——SEDI 式内部人交易与 IIROC 空头明细不可机读。高或上升的空头是警示；高机构持股是拥挤背景。描述性，非信号。
Factor exposure因子敞口 · commodity / FX beta商品／汇率贝塔?This name's sensitivity to oil (WTI), gold and its local currency, with the broad market removed (orthogonal betas) — the dimension that separates commodity- and FX-exposed names. An energy producer loads on oil, a miner on gold, a bank reads near-zero (market-driven). The "primary driver" is the largest commodity/FX leg; fit R² is how much of the daily move these factors plus the market explain. Descriptive exposure for sizing and pairing, NOT a forecast or a buy signal.本股票对原油（WTI）、黄金与本地货币的敏感度，已剔除大盘（正交贝塔）—— 这是区分商品与汇率敞口个股的维度。能源生产商对原油敏感，矿企对黄金敏感，银行接近零（由大盘驱动）。"主要驱动"为最大的商品／汇率腿；拟合R²表示这些因子加大盘能解释日内波动的比例。仅作仓位与配对的描述性敞口，并非预测或买入信号。
How much to trust the state — measured on its market's history这个状态有多可信 — 基于该市场历史实测?These names drift up over a month from every state; the spread between states is small. Use the state for structure (cycle position, confirmation checklist, invalidation level) and size positions instead of seeking certainty. Typical dip = median worst drop over the next month; bad-case dip = the worst 1-in-10 month (10th percentile).从任何状态出发，这些个股在一个月内都倾向于上涨；各状态之间的差距很小。请把状态用于结构判断（周期位置、确认清单、失效价位）并据此控制仓位，而非追求确定性。典型回撤 = 未来一个月最大跌幅中位数；最坏回撤 = 十分之一的最差月份（第10百分位）。
How to read this page: the verdict band is the one call; the timing line, fingerprint axes and evidence lanes are the supporting reads behind it; the collapsed sections hold the full detail. Everything here is display-only research context, never personalized investment advice — sizing is a risk-budget guide, not a recommendation.如何阅读本页：结论条是唯一的判断；时机行、画像轴与依据栏是其背后的支撑读数；折叠区块收纳完整明细。本页所有内容仅为研究性背景展示，并非个性化投资建议——仓位为风险预算参考，而非推荐。