China Banks中国银行
GSXACHBA
idx指数 3868 · 2014–2026
beaten down深度超跌overheated过热
Fwd 6m up-rate未来6月上涨率
70% / base基准 52%
when setup ~ today当配置类似今日 · lift超额 -3–38pp · n=17mo月 (n_eff≈1.1)
Median fwd 6m未来6月中位
+1.60%
vs base对比基准 +1.30%
washout / mean-reversion超卖回归 +1.2breadth (contrarian)广度反向 +0.9input-cost (PPI)PPI 成本 -0.7credit cycle信用周期 -0.5
China Banks sits at cycle position 26/100 (Recovering). Today's driver setup is in its high third — historically that leaned the 6-month odds UP (forward-6m positive 70% of the time vs 52% base, n_months=17, n_eff≈1.1; but the band does not exclude the base rate). Composite from 2019-01-31 (all 4 legs live). Bullish legs: washout / mean-reversion, breadth (contrarian). Headwinds: input-cost (PPI), credit cycle.中国银行周期位置 26/100（修复回升）。当前驱动配置处于历史高位区间。历史上此类配置下，未来6个月上涨概率约 70%（基准 52%，月度样本 17，有效 n≈1.1）。（复合指标自 2019-01-31 起，全部 4 项因子齐备）
Last major turn最近主要拐点: bottom底 2022-10-31 · 4B底/3T顶 (≥25% zigzag)（≥25% 折线）
Conditional, display-only context — not a forecast or a buy signal. Phase 0 found no China driver clears a strict significance bar on monthly sector returns; this summarizes the sign-stable lead cluster honestly. The composite is a fixed constituent set, defined only from the month all legs are live (see composition), and its interval is a date-blocked bootstrap on overlapping windows — so the cohort is short but the number is one feature.仅为条件化展示，非预测或买卖信号。Phase 0 检验显示无单一驱动能通过严格显著性门槛，此处仅诚实汇总符号稳定的领先因子组合。复合指标为固定因子集合，仅在全部因子齐备后定义，置信区间采用按日期分块的自助法（考虑窗口重叠），样本较短但口径一致。
China Consumption中国消费
GSXACCON
idx指数 4520 · 2000–2026
beaten down深度超跌overheated过热
Fwd 6m up-rate未来6月上涨率
39% / base基准 47%
when setup ~ today当配置类似今日 · lift超额 -26–9pp · n=23mo月 (n_eff≈1.1)
Median fwd 6m未来6月中位
-4.90%
vs base对比基准 -0.80%
breadth (contrarian)广度反向 +0.9washout / mean-reversion超卖回归 +0.8input-cost (PPI)PPI 成本 -0.7credit cycle信用周期 -0.5
China Consumption sits at cycle position 12/100 (Beaten down). Today's driver setup is in its high third — historically that was roughly neutral (forward-6m positive 39% of the time vs 47% base, n_months=23, n_eff≈1.1; but the band does not exclude the base rate). Composite from 2019-01-31 (all 4 legs live). Bullish legs: breadth (contrarian), washout / mean-reversion. Headwinds: input-cost (PPI), credit cycle.中国消费周期位置 12/100（深度超跌）。当前驱动配置处于历史高位区间。历史上此类配置下，未来6个月上涨概率约 39%（基准 47%，月度样本 23，有效 n≈1.1）。（复合指标自 2019-01-31 起，全部 4 项因子齐备）
Last major turn最近主要拐点: bottom底 2024-09-18 · 11B底/11T顶 (≥25% zigzag)（≥25% 折线）
Conditional, display-only context — not a forecast or a buy signal. Phase 0 found no China driver clears a strict significance bar on monthly sector returns; this summarizes the sign-stable lead cluster honestly. The composite is a fixed constituent set, defined only from the month all legs are live (see composition), and its interval is a date-blocked bootstrap on overlapping windows — so the cohort is short but the number is one feature.仅为条件化展示，非预测或买卖信号。Phase 0 检验显示无单一驱动能通过严格显著性门槛，此处仅诚实汇总符号稳定的领先因子组合。复合指标为固定因子集合，仅在全部因子齐备后定义，置信区间采用按日期分块的自助法（考虑窗口重叠），样本较短但口径一致。
China Real Estate中国地产
GSXACNRE
idx指数 1880 · 1999–2026
beaten down深度超跌overheated过热
Fwd 6m up-rate未来6月上涨率
43% / base基准 34%
when setup ~ today当配置类似今日 · lift超额 -8–25pp · n=23mo月 (n_eff≈1.1)
Median fwd 6m未来6月中位
-7.70%
vs base对比基准 -6.90%
breadth (contrarian)广度反向 +0.9input-cost (PPI)PPI 成本 -0.7washout / mean-reversion超卖回归 +0.6credit cycle信用周期 -0.5
China Real Estate sits at cycle position 29/100 (Recovering). Today's driver setup is in its mid third — historically that was roughly neutral (forward-6m positive 43% of the time vs 34% base, n_months=23, n_eff≈1.1; but the band does not exclude the base rate). Composite from 2019-01-31 (all 4 legs live). Bullish legs: breadth (contrarian), washout / mean-reversion. Headwinds: input-cost (PPI), credit cycle.中国地产周期位置 29/100（修复回升）。当前驱动配置处于历史中位区间。历史上此类配置下，未来6个月上涨概率约 43%（基准 34%，月度样本 23，有效 n≈1.1）。（复合指标自 2019-01-31 起，全部 4 项因子齐备）
Last major turn最近主要拐点: top顶 2025-11-17 · 19B底/20T顶 (≥25% zigzag)（≥25% 折线）
Conditional, display-only context — not a forecast or a buy signal. Phase 0 found no China driver clears a strict significance bar on monthly sector returns; this summarizes the sign-stable lead cluster honestly. The composite is a fixed constituent set, defined only from the month all legs are live (see composition), and its interval is a date-blocked bootstrap on overlapping windows — so the cohort is short but the number is one feature.仅为条件化展示，非预测或买卖信号。Phase 0 检验显示无单一驱动能通过严格显著性门槛，此处仅诚实汇总符号稳定的领先因子组合。复合指标为固定因子集合，仅在全部因子齐备后定义，置信区间采用按日期分块的自助法（考虑窗口重叠），样本较短但口径一致。
China Auto中国汽车
GSXACNAU
idx指数 6497 · 2014–2026
beaten down深度超跌overheated过热
Fwd 6m up-rate未来6月上涨率
55% / base基准 65%
when setup ~ today当配置类似今日 · lift超额 -30–9pp · n=18mo月 (n_eff≈1.1)
Median fwd 6m未来6月中位
+1.90%
vs base对比基准 +5.20%
washout / mean-reversion超卖回归 +1.0breadth (contrarian)广度反向 +0.9input-cost (PPI)PPI 成本 -0.7credit cycle信用周期 -0.5
China Auto sits at cycle position 6/100 (Beaten down). Today's driver setup is in its high third — historically that was roughly neutral (forward-6m positive 55% of the time vs 65% base, n_months=18, n_eff≈1.1; but the band does not exclude the base rate). Composite from 2019-01-31 (all 4 legs live). Bullish legs: washout / mean-reversion, breadth (contrarian). Headwinds: input-cost (PPI), credit cycle.中国汽车周期位置 6/100（深度超跌）。当前驱动配置处于历史高位区间。历史上此类配置下，未来6个月上涨概率约 55%（基准 65%，月度样本 18，有效 n≈1.1）。（复合指标自 2019-01-31 起，全部 4 项因子齐备）
Last major turn最近主要拐点: bottom底 2024-02-05 · 8B底/7T顶 (≥25% zigzag)（≥25% 折线）
Conditional, display-only context — not a forecast or a buy signal. Phase 0 found no China driver clears a strict significance bar on monthly sector returns; this summarizes the sign-stable lead cluster honestly. The composite is a fixed constituent set, defined only from the month all legs are live (see composition), and its interval is a date-blocked bootstrap on overlapping windows — so the cohort is short but the number is one feature.仅为条件化展示，非预测或买卖信号。Phase 0 检验显示无单一驱动能通过严格显著性门槛，此处仅诚实汇总符号稳定的领先因子组合。复合指标为固定因子集合，仅在全部因子齐备后定义，置信区间采用按日期分块的自助法（考虑窗口重叠），样本较短但口径一致。