China A-share regime history中国A股周期历史

data through数据截至 2026-07-17

Regimes over the Shanghai Composite上证综指 周期叠加 ?The Shanghai Composite with the regime active at each time shaded behind it — how the classifier behaved in real conditions. Regime classification begins ~2006 (when the China macro series start); the chart shows the last 3 years.上证综指走势，并以底色标出每个时段所处的周期 — 展示分类器在真实环境中的表现。周期分类自约 2006 年起（中国宏观数据起点）；图表显示最近三年。

Goldilocks理想增长 — growth ↑ inflation ↓ (tech/quality/consumer)增长 ↑ 通胀 ↓（科技／质量／消费） Reflation再通胀 — growth ↑ inflation ↑ (commodities/brokers/property)增长 ↑ 通胀 ↑（大宗／券商／地产） Stagflation滞胀 — growth ↓ inflation ↑ (materials/banks/staples)增长 ↓ 通胀 ↑（材料／银行／必需消费） Growth scare增长恐慌 — growth ↓ inflation ↓ — measured-best contrarian bottom增长 ↓ 通胀 ↓ — 实测最佳的逆向底部

The two dials over time两大指标随时间变化 ?History of the growth (green) and inflation (red) scores. Zero-line crossings are regime changes; persistent readings near ±0.5 are strong regimes; near zero = mixed. Inflation is PPI-led for China (the upweighted, most-stable signal).增长（绿）与通胀（红）评分的历史走势。穿越零轴即周期切换；持续接近 ±0.5 代表强周期；接近零 = 混杂。中国的通胀轴以 PPI 为主导（经上调权重、最稳定的信号）。

Regime lifespans — base rates周期存续期 — 基准概率 ?Every regime period since ~2006 in this classifier: how many there were, how long they typically lasted, and where they went next. China regimes are shorter and less stable than the US — treat as context.本分类器自约 2006 年以来的每个周期时段：共出现多少次、通常持续多久、结束后转向何处。中国的周期比美国更短、更不稳定 — 仅作背景参考。

regime周期periods次数median length (days)存续中位数（天）most common next最常见的下一周期
Goldilocks理想增长4033Growth scare 50%, Reflation 48%增长恐慌 50%、再通胀 48%
Reflation再通胀3230Stagflation 50%, Goldilocks 50%滞胀 50%、理想增长 50%
Stagflation滞胀2032Reflation 63%, Goldilocks 26%再通胀 63%、理想增长 26%
Growth scare增长恐慌2323Goldilocks 83%, Stagflation 13%理想增长 83%、滞胀 13%

Cycle Phase Memory周期阶段记忆 ?Current A-share cycle phase from the W3 lobe, with a 90-session strip and ERA analog table (2005→). Falsifiers are pre-committed machine-checkable conditions graded nightly. Descriptive only — no signal (CN-SYS-R1).当前A股周期阶段（W3脉络），含90个交易日图条与历史ERA对照表（2005年至今）。证伪条件为每夜自动评分的预提交可检查条件。仅为描述性 — 非信号（CN-SYS-R1）。

Current Phase当前阶段
POLICY PUT
confidence置信度 75%
as of截至 2026-07-17
3 falsifiers armed — auto-graded nightly个证伪条件已激活 — 每夜自动评分
POLI_PP_LUP_RECOVERING lup5 > 1.0 10d天
POLI_PP_TOZ_STABILISE turnover_z20 > -1.0 10d天
POLI_PP_LDN_FADING ldn5 < 2.0 5d天

90-session phase strip90个交易日阶段图条

POLICY PUT LIQUIDITY IGNITION BROADENING THEME LEADERSHIP EUPHORIA DISTRIBUTION DELEVERAGING CAPITULATION GRINDING BEAR REPAIR

Historical ERA table历史ERA对照表 ?Known A-share market cycle eras since 2005. Each ERA is annotated with the phases it passed through. Descriptive only — no forward projection (CN-SYS-R1).2005年以来已知的A股市场周期时代，每个时代标注所经历的阶段。仅为描述性 — 无前瞻预测（CN-SYS-R1）。

▸ Show ERA table (21 eras) ▸ 展开ERA表（21个时代）
ERA时代 Period时期 Phases阶段 Note注释
2005 reform bottom 2005-06 → 2005-12 CAPITULATION → REPAIR Split-share structure reform; market bottomed Jun-2005
2006 2007 bull 2006-01 → 2007-10 LIQUIDITY_IGNITION → BROADENING → THEME_LEADERSHIP → EUPHORIA Structural bull; Shanghai Composite 1000→6124; retail FOMO 2007-H2
2007 2008 bust 2007-11 → 2008-10 DISTRIBUTION → DELEVERAGING → CAPITULATION Global GFC + overvaluation unwind; market -70%
2008 policy rescue 2008-11 → 2009-08 POLICY_PUT → LIQUIDITY_IGNITION → BROADENING 4-trillion RMB stimulus; rapid V-shape recovery
2009 2012 grind 2009-09 → 2012-12 DISTRIBUTION → GRINDING_BEAR → REPAIR Post-stimulus hangover; property tightening; 3-year bear
2013 thematic bull 2013-01 → 2014-12 THEME_LEADERSHIP → REPAIR ChiNext / TMT thematics; SOE reform; big-caps flat
2014h2 2015h1 mania 2014-11 → 2015-06 LIQUIDITY_IGNITION → BROADENING → EUPHORIA RRR cuts + margin surge; SHCOMP 2000→5178; peak retail mania
2015h2 crash 2015-06 → 2015-09 DISTRIBUTION → DELEVERAGING → CAPITULATION Margin unwind cascade; circuit-breaker; -45% from peak
2015q4 2016 repair 2015-10 → 2016-12 REPAIR → POLICY_PUT → GRINDING_BEAR Circuit-breaker incident (Jan-2016); slow repair
2017 blue chip 2017-01 → 2017-12 THEME_LEADERSHIP → BROADENING White-horse / blue-chip rally; Mao index diverges from ChiNext
2018 deleveraging 2018-01 → 2018-12 GRINDING_BEAR → DELEVERAGING Trade war + regulatory deleveraging; -30% A-shares
2019 policy recovery 2019-01 → 2019-04 POLICY_PUT → LIQUIDITY_IGNITION PBOC easing; market rallied 30% Q1-2019
2019 2020 range 2019-05 → 2020-01 THEME_LEADERSHIP → GRINDING_BEAR Trade-war uncertainty + selective themes
2020 covid crash 2020-02 → 2020-03 CAPITULATION → POLICY_PUT COVID shock; PBOC rapid easing; A-shares recovered faster than global
2020 2021 bull 2020-04 → 2021-02 LIQUIDITY_IGNITION → BROADENING → THEME_LEADERSHIP → EUPHORIA Post-COVID liquidity surge; semiconductor/EV themes; peak Feb-2021
2021 2022 grind 2021-03 → 2022-10 DISTRIBUTION → DELEVERAGING → GRINDING_BEAR Regulatory crackdowns (edu/platform/property); Ukraine risk; -40% peak-trough
2022q4 2023 repair 2022-11 → 2023-08 POLICY_PUT → REPAIR → THEME_LEADERSHIP COVID reopening bounce; AI-theme (ChatGPT wave)
2023 2024 grind 2023-09 → 2024-09 GRINDING_BEAR → REPAIR Persistent deflationary pressure; property crisis; policy half-measures
2024q3 ignition 2024-09 → 2024-11 POLICY_PUT → LIQUIDITY_IGNITION Politburo Sep-24 stimulus surprise; SHCOMP +30% in 2 weeks
2025 theme phase 2024-12 → 2025-12 THEME_LEADERSHIP → BROADENING → REPAIR DeepSeek AI wave Q1-2025; selective technology themes
2026 current 2026-01 → 2026-12 GRINDING_BEAR → REPAIR Ongoing assessment — accruing

Historical analogs (display-only)历史类比（仅供展示） ?Top-5 closest historical dates by regime/liquidity/cycle similarity. Forward returns shown for reference — no extrapolation (CN-SYS-R1). Source: site/china_intel/analogs.json (read-only).按周期/流动性/商业周期相似度匹配的最近5个历史时间点。前瞻收益仅供参考 — 不作外推（CN-SYS-R1）。来源：site/china_intel/analogs.json（只读）。

Date日期 Quad象限 Dist距离 SHCOMP 20d上证20日 CSI300 60d沪深300 60日
2023-10-31 Q3 0.023 -0.0% -6.7%
2008-07-29 Q3 0.068 -19.2% —
2024-01-15 Q3 0.115 +1.9% +6.9%
2024-05-16 Q3 0.145 -4.5% -8.1%
2024-12-31 Q3 0.290 +1.3% -5.6%

Display-only analog readout. Context only — no forward projection or signal (CN-SYS-R1).展示性历史类比读取。仅供背景参考 — 不作前瞻预测或信号解读（CN-SYS-R1）。

Context-only (CN-SYS-R1). Phase tape accruing since W3 launch. ERA table covers 2005→. Falsifier ledger graded nightly.仅供背景参考（CN-SYS-R1）。阶段磁带自W3启动后持续积累。ERA表格涵盖2005年至今。证伪台账每夜评分。

Generated生成于 2026-07-17 17:04 UTC UTC